Poverty reduction; using numbers

Just a small exercise 

Poverty – Overall Trend

·       Annual average decline in poverty surged to 9 percent compared to previous decade decline by 5-6 percent.

·       Overall Poverty declined by 2.86 percent every year since 2001-02

-   Based on this figure, by 2023, poverty will be reduced to 4.3 percent.

·       Compound growth rate of decline in Poverty is 6.72 percent

-   Based on this figure, by 2023, poverty will be reduced to 14.94 percent

Years	Poverty	Overall Decline (%)	Annual % change in poverty
2001-02	64.3
2005-06	50.4	-21.62	-5.40
2007-08	44.1	-12.50	-6.25
2010-11	36.8	-16.55	-5.52
2011-12	36.3	-1.36	-1.36
2013-14	29.5	-18.73	-9.37
2015-16	24.3	-17.63	-8.81

Table 2: Poverty Level by 2023.

2001-02 (%)	64.3
2015-16 (%)	24.3
Reduction overall (%)	40
Average Annual Decline (%)	2.857
Poverty level at 2023 (%)	4.3
Average Compound Growth (%)	-6.72
Poverty level at 2023 (%)	14.9

REMARKS: Reaching at 4.3 percent may not be feasible because this data analysis do not take care of real or actual/expected increase in social protection as well as it does not take care of growth rate in GDP. However, if poverty level reaches around 16 percent in the using the PSLM 2018-19 then we can say that poverty decline is following the same trend. 

History of fiscal deficit by Dr PT

I’m sharing Dr Pervez Tahir Article here which is very informative on the history of fiscal deficit. It was published in Tribune

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2045092/short-history-fiscal-deficit/?amp=1

The picture of the consolidated Pakistan fiscal operations for the complete fiscal year 2018-19 released by the Finance Division on 27 August 2019 has sent shock waves throughout the economy. There was intense media competition to locate the key result, a fiscal deficit of 8.9 per cent of GDP, in our short but turbulent economic history. In this paper, Shahbaz Rana described the deficit at 8.9 per cent of GDP as the highest in the past eight years. To Dawn’s Khaleeq Kiani, it was “perhaps the highest in the country’s history”. In the Business Recorder, Ali Khizar first estimated the fiscal deficit at 9.1 per cent and called it “scary” and the highest-ever since 1978-79. He noted parenthetically that no record was available prior to that year. He had to downgrade to “not too scary” when the official number was released the next day, not knowing that the Finance Division also operates Bata style (what is a few bases points among friends anyway!). Khalid Mustafa and Mehtab Haider of The News stuck to the highest-ever in the last eight years, but the second highest in 43 years since 1975-76 when “[the deficit] had escalated to 10.3 per cent of the GDP”.

As the fiscal data of the pre-Bangladesh period has not been re-estimated with the use of proper methodology, it is well-nigh impossible to know the highest-ever deficit number. However, the statistical appendix of the Pakistan Economic Survey 1972-73 gives a surplus/deficit series from 1948-49 to 1972-73. According to this series, Pakistan’s first-ever deficit occurred in 1965-66, a war year, when the defence spending more than doubled in a single year. Again, the next deficit happened in the war year of 1971-72.

Post-Bangladesh, the State Bank’s Handbook of Statistics on Pakistan Economy 2015 provides a consistent set of information using the current definitions. It was first published in 2010 and has since been made a five-yearly publication. The starting year is 1975-76, showing the first-ever double-digit fiscal deficit pointed out by Mehtab Haider. It was 9 per cent in the following year and in 1978-79; the latter year falling in the Zia regime. Junejo’s last year, 1987-88 also hit 9 per cent. The first year of Nawaz-I (1990-91) was the last time the 9 per cent mark was touched and PTI’s 8.9 per cent score is the sixth largest.

Deficits per se are loathsome to the neoliberal way of thinking, but it makes sense to see them in a context. Mr Bhutto’s 10 per cent in 1975-76 was entirely due to development expenditure, i.e. investment which laid the foundations of growth in the Zia years. In 1976-77, development expenditure increased to 11 per cent of GDP while the fiscal deficit stood at 9 per cent. In other words, one per cent of the revenue surplus was also used for development. General Zia’s 9 per cent in 1978-79 was also fully utilised for development. Muhammad Khan Junejo’s 9 per cent was absorbed in a development expenditure of 7 per cent and a revenue deficit of 2 per cent. The development expenditure declined to 6 per cent and revenue deficit increased to 3 per cent under Nawaz-I. Out of PTI’s 8.9 per cent, only 3.2 per cent goes to development and as much as 5.7 per cent to cover the revenue shortfall. Just as a high fiscal deficit is not necessarily bad, a low fiscal deficit is not necessarily good. The lowest-ever fiscal deficit of 2 per cent was achieved in 2003-04 falling in General Musharraf’s period, but development expenditure was just 3 per cent then.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 30^th, 2019.

Gender Equality and Sustainable Development

Gender Equality and sustainable Development

"It is a crime against humanity that all women are confined within the four walls of their homes like prisoners. They should stand side by side with men as their companions and in all spheres of life" (Quaid-i-Azam, Muhammad Ali Jinnah).

Pakistan is a home of 208 million people. Almost half of the population consists of females. For healthy and progressive society neglecting this crucial half of the population is counterproductive. Women’s role is unacknowledged and presumed that both the genders are not treated equally. Notwithstanding, both the genders do have equal opportunities but there are several cultural, social, and domestic constraints which are abstaining females to participate in the society.

Equality in both sexes is essential to achieve sustainable development. In a sustainable society women and men enjoy the same level of opportunities. That the access to all kind of resources are equally distributed as well as participation in economic activity and decision making is equal.

Sustainable development goals call for just society for sustainable development. It emphasizes on prosperity and peace which is not possible until we achieve gender equality in all its dimensions; social, economic and environment.

Gender equality has several aspects; in house equality, work equality, resources equality etc. Preference for boys over girls is a common form of gender inequality exists in the developing nations such as India. Male-dominated societies have gender inequality that can manifest in the form of the parents wanting the newborn to be a boy rather than a girl. Unfortunately, sex-selective abortions have become common in countries such as China and South Korea, nonetheless, in Pakistan it is not a big problem.

Although education is vital for both boys and girls especially in Islamic perspective. However, due to resource constraints and lack of facilities people do not send their girls to schools. This is one of the reasons that despite having equal number of schools our girl’s enrollment ratio is below than boys. Albeit, primary enrollment general gap is decreasing, and ratio currently stands at 0.91.

Female labour force participation is 20 percent according to Labour Force Survey 2017-18 compare to male labour participation rate 68 percent. Lower female labour force participation has numerous reason such as restriction on physical mobility outside home. Several interconnected factors restrict women’s mobility outside the home, among them (i) social, cultural, and religious norms;(ii) safety and crime; and (iii)the quality of available transport services. Moreover, Isran and Isran (2012) concluded that female employment is also constrained due to the non-availability of self-employment opportunities or the existence of culture inhibitions in seeking lower status, and low waged employment outside the household. Therefore, civil society as well as NRSP and Akhuwat foundation are giving loans to women for businesses. Several incubation centers are working on the female entrepreneurship. Moreover, several female training institutes and universities were established to mitigate the social, cultural and religious norms.

Another unequal behavior which was presumed is the ownership of property. SDGs Goal 5, Target 5.A. asks all countries to undertake reforms to give equal rights to economic resources as well as ownership and control over land and other form of property. SDPI paper reported that 89 percent women have the right to own land according to the Islam/Sharia law. While 80 percent women also control land as well. Rest of the 20 percent do not control it because it is difficult to manage land due to customs and traditions, or/and they have lacked the competence, knowledge and skills to manage land. Paper reported that on surface it seemed that a significant majority of men were in favor of women’s land rights, nonetheless, it is not apparent from the societal values and civil society stories. A Meta-Analysis shows that land-inequality negatively affects economic growth, especially at low development levels. The association is lower in short run but higher in the long run due to credit constraints and institutional mechanisms.

The situation which was bad few decades ago has been continuously improving for women in Pakistan. For instance, All Pakistan Ulema Council recently issued fatwas denouncing "honour killings". Women are now joining different profession such as more recently, women are joining police force as high ranked officers, they are now fighter pilots, firefighters, sportswomen in almost all sports from boxing to cricket.

United Nations 2030 agenda which was adopted by Pakistan’s parliaments in 2016 has Goal 5 which elucidates several dimensions of gender issues. It says that we need to ensure legal framework exists and implemented that promoted non-discrimination based on sex. Every province has pass several acts to end discriminatory behavior based on sex, race and ethnicity. It strictly advocates against the physical, sexual and psychosocial violence against women and girls as well as forced and early marriages and female genital mutilation. Although the problem of physical, sexual and psychological abuse exists however by making several acts in the parliaments after 2016 especially and implementing the strict rules of law and we are controlling it as much as possible. Recent PDHS 2017-18 reports decline in violence against women that is a positive sign and it will be completely eradicated by stringent implementation of rule of law that protects women from all kinds of violence. Bolo helpline and Women’s safety app along with several acts and laws

Women has significant but unacknowledged presence at all levels of nation building. Target 5.4 suggests recognizing and value unpaid care and domestic work. In this way one can recognize women’s contribution in a more visible and rewarding way.

Target 5.5 realizes us that not just home rather women’s roles is as much important in higher-level decision-making process. Therefore, it emphasizes on the full and effective participation and equal opportunities for leadership at all levels of decision-making in political, economic and public life. In national assembly 18 percent are the female representatives who raises their voices expressively in all the standing committees. Moreover, female percentage is increasing at the managerial level positions at different corporate firms.

Health related issues are in general discussed in Goal 3 of Sustainable Development Goals. Nevertheless, Target 5.6 specifically, illustrates universal access to sexual and reproductive health and reproductive rights as agreed in accordance with the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development and the Beijing Platform for Action and the outcome documents of their review conferences. Pakistan has been progressing on it by making laws, giving awareness and changing habits of people towards it.

From the above discussion, it is unambiguous to say that empowerment is the first step to achieve gender equality. It starts with awareness raising to both men and women on numerous aspects including harassment, assaults, land distribution, financial inclusions etc. It creates and increases decision making power that consequently raises the standard of living as well overall economic, social development.

Integrating Population with SDGs

Integrating Population with SDGs

Pakistan has experienced a rapid population growth since 1998 and has the highest fertility rate, though declining in the region. The trend is similar across all provinces, and in rural and urban areas. Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 2017-18 confirms that there has been little change in fertility levels since 2005 with women bearing an average of 3.6 children over their reproductive life span.

Impact of population growth on economic development is ambiguous. It can affect development positively or larger population puts pressures on the existing resources. During the 1980s, on average, population growth dampened the growth of per capita GDP. The negative effects of rapid increase in population weighed more on the poorest group especially in the developing countries. The poorest group has limited resources hence the most vulnerable and increase in population affects this group. In this article we will explore the ideas that how population planning leads to sustainable outcomes following SDGs.

Pakistan signed the SDGs along with other countries on 25 September 2015. Pakistan was among those nations who have actively pursued the agenda at different levels. Parliament adopted SDGs as national development agenda, parliamentary task forces were established to oversee the SDGs implementation, new institutions were setup to mainstream SDGs into policymaking.

Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform is a lead ministry on SDGs. The ministry is holding a high-level consultative forum on strengthening the population statistics for evidence-based planning and policy review. This forum is in response to Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent policy statement in which he labelled population as the denominator of poverty alleviation and calls for ensuring universal access to family planning for sustainable population growth. He further called for a “National Strategy for the Development of Statistics” for strengthening the quality and availability of statistics so that the government can not only have access to accurate, reliable, and timely statistics but also have a solid and credible base of evidence, which is critical to support the design and evaluation of policies.

SDG comprises of 17 Goals. Each goal is distinctly linked with population. Few targets/indicators are directly linked to the population such as reproductive health, maternal mortality rate, Child mortality and Universal primary and secondary education. Nevertheless, it is universally accepted that population is cross cutting in all SDGs. With the current fertility rate and population growth rate it is difficult to reduce future influx till 2030. Dr Zeba Sathar, the Country Director of Pakistan Population Council, in a seminar at Agha Khan University highlighted the negative impact of higher population growth on all SDG indicators particularly those tied to poverty reduction, nutrition, and health and education services in rural areas.

Goal 1: Population dynamics have an enormous impact on poverty reduction and sustainable development. Poverty is influenced by – and influences – population dynamics; it affects development prospects and prospects for raising living standards for the poor. In addition, linking it with rapid urbanization due to ill-planning of cities quality of life, particularly that of the poor, is negatively affected. Higher population growth creates problems for the government to redistribute resources, hence burden on the social protection.

Goal 2: Malthusian theory elucidates that food insecurity arises with increase in population. However, the theory does not hold in the presence of technological development, globalization etc. Besides population, the impacts of climate change on temperature, precipitation, and agricultural productivity are more significant to diminish food security in some places. It is noteworthy that chronic poor nutrition has permanent effects; it can be extended into the next generation. Nutritionally weak pregnant women pass the ill-effects of hunger onto their future children. Thus, resource constraints and lack of proper nutrition due to lack of awareness, lack of financial resources and absence of strong institutions and social capital is creating problems for the service providers. These issues need to be fixed sooner if we can reduce the population momentum and the fertility rate reaches the replacement rate.

Goal 3: Health and well-being is directly linked with the population dynamics through reproductive health, essential health coverage and financing, child mortality rate and maternal mortality rate. Dr Zeba Sathar, the Country Director of Pakistan Population Council, said that Pakistan loses 12,000 mothers in pregnancy - related causes annually while millions of couples’ cope with unwanted births each year in the country. Decrease in mortality rates and better health coverage is essential to contain population growth rate. The healthy population directly links with eradication of poverty through Goal 4, Goal 8 and Goal 9 in which we have targets of quality education, training, enhancing skills and innovation. Nonetheless, more resources are required with higher population growth to provide better health services which is difficult by following the austerity drive we are currently following.

Goal 4: Population and education nexus has many dimensions. Higher rate of population growth highlights lower quality education in the vicinity. It also implies that lower access to education especially for the females. Different dimensions of this phenomenon are; earlier marriages of females that reduces the chances to get education, lower returns to education compared to domestic chores etc. more importantly, Bangladesh model teaches us to educate women if we want to decrease fertility rate and eventually population growth rate.

Goal 5: Pakistan’s population comprises 49.2 percent females.  More than half are not economically active. However, if the women are given opportunities, childbearing can be delayed using the women as mobilizers in investment and saving. More women contributing simultaneously with the male population will bring about improvements in the national economy.

Goal 6: Demand for water grows with increase in population. It is a necessity for agriculture, industry and household chores. Water per capita has been continuously declining therefore we need to manage use of water properly. The management of water has gained importance due to climate vulnerabilities. Moreover, better sanitation inevitable with increase in population, or otherwise, there will be increase in health problems.

Goal 7: Demand for energy increases with increase in population. More importantly, increase in demand with depleting resources, there is a challenge not only to match the increase in demand but it must be affordable and clean energy for everyone. Therefore, it is important to reduce the rate of growth of population to meat the demand for energy sustainably.

Goal 8: Nevertheless, declining fertility as well as reducing population growth eventually reduces ratio of children to the working‐age population. Consequently, number of dependents reduces and increasing the share of the potential labour force. Large youth population with few dependents would reap the benefits of a demographic dividend. Therefore, we need to invest in youth (age between 15-29) which is 29 percent of population on education and health to get the maximum demographic dividend. Employment opportunities with higher growth is the only possibility to reduce the burden on social protection with current higher population growth.

Goal 9: Industry and industrial infrastructure to accommodate influx of population. Linking it with education, innovation is necessary to boost up for better industry and industrial infrastructure. However, it is not possible in the presence of higher population growth. Higher population growth puts pressure on the earners through number of dependents thus lesser possibility of innovation. In addition to that higher population growth implies higher public investment on infrastructure thus higher debt.

Goal 10: Continuous and consistent unplanned higher population growth decreases the work-force and dependents ratio. This implies increase in expected work force every year in numbers makes labor less attractive hence lower wages. Consequently, rising inequalities. Similarly, rising population growth can affect overall resource distribution that includes land distribution, financial inclusion and designing the overall long-term planning structure. Thus, bottom line is planned and sustainable population growth so that influx every year can be managed easily.

Goal 11: Huge influx to urban centers along with higher population creates problems for urban planners. These issues then lead to increase in illegal settlements such as slums. Many cities in the world currently experiencing higher urban population growth lack the infrastructure needed to support more people. It will become increasingly important that cities are able to offer jobs, education, and basic needs like housing, electricity, and public transportation. Thus, population planning is a way to go for sustainable cities and communities.

Goal 12: Proper management of consumption as well as production needs up-to-date information on number of people. Since population is a denominator for poverty, inequality and other development-oriented indicators. Therefore, until we do not plan for justified population growth it is highly unlikely that we can reduce food loss and material footprint.

Goal 13: Increase in urbanization is among the key factors contributing in environmental degradation due to irresponsible urban settlements, deforestation and cultivation of marginal lands, unsustainable patterns of consumption by more affluent groups. In addition, lack of urban planning to accommodate migrants from other parts of the country.

Goal 14: Everything goes back to management of resources in an efficient way. Higher population growth leads to lower management of resources. Higher demand for fish leads to overfishing, hence it is difficult to maintain fish stocks within biologically sustainable levels and overall food security of the people living there.

Goal 15: Higher population growth leads to increase in deforestation for to cover the need for housing and fuel. Deforestation does not just deplete the natural resource, it also threatens natural habitats, water stress, climate change and biodiversity. The classic example of a change in biodiversity due to increase in population is a case of Yellow Stone National Park in Wyoming, USA where people killed wolves and park lost vegetation. The wolves were reintroduced to increase beaver populations and bring back aspen, and vegetation.

Goal 16: Higher population growth may impact peace negatively. It is a source of human conflict over resources. nevertheless, in the presence of strong institutions the negative effect is lessened. Rapid increase in population increases the size of urban sector.  Thus, urbanization may be good for the economy, but it encourages crime as the rate of crime is higher in large cities and in urbanized areas. Thus, higher population growth creates problems for peace and justice, however, stronger institutions may eradicate these issues.

Difficulty in managing huge influx of population will continue to scare us until stronger institutions are setup. The need of growing population can only be managed under stronger institutions. It is necessary to ensure the sustainable use of natural resources, sustainable consumption and production patterns, reducing land degradation, reducing the overall water stress level, and protection of natural habitat. To achieve sustainable development, we need to manage youth bulge through education and training to get maximum demographic dividend, reduce fertility that eventually reduce ratio of dependents and increase the effectiveness of institutions.

Growth is significant to reduce poverty

Growth is significant to reduce poverty

India lifted 271 mn people out of poverty in 10 yrs
https://www.deccanherald.com/national/india-lifted-271-mn-people-out-of-poverty-in-10-yrs-un-746566.html

Pakistan has lifted 6.2% of its population out of acute poverty during five-year https://tribune.com.pk/story/2011528/1/

6.2 percent of 212 million is 13.14 million

Let’s do simple mathematical analysis
1. Indian population is 6.3 times than Pakistan
1. If we multiply 6.3 with 13.14million populationmout of poverty in the last five years. It is 83.1 million
3. if same process continues for next five years then it will become 166.2 million
4. India lifted 271 million
5. If we divide 271 with 166.2 then we will have 1.63 factor which shows that 63 percent more reduction India has experienced
6. Now look at this Pakistan’s average growth in the last 4-5 years was 4.6 percent and India’s average growth rate was 7.5 percent
7. Divide 7.5 with 4.6. It will come 1.63. Which shows that India’s growth rate was 63 percent more than Pakistan.
8. This simple maths show that growth is the main reason for reduction in poverty.