Integrating Population with SDGs

Integrating Population with SDGs

Pakistan has experienced a rapid population growth since 1998 and has the highest fertility rate, though declining in the region. The trend is similar across all provinces, and in rural and urban areas. Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 2017-18 confirms that there has been little change in fertility levels since 2005 with women bearing an average of 3.6 children over their reproductive life span.

Impact of population growth on economic development is ambiguous. It can affect development positively or larger population puts pressures on the existing resources. During the 1980s, on average, population growth dampened the growth of per capita GDP. The negative effects of rapid increase in population weighed more on the poorest group especially in the developing countries. The poorest group has limited resources hence the most vulnerable and increase in population affects this group. In this article we will explore the ideas that how population planning leads to sustainable outcomes following SDGs.

Pakistan signed the SDGs along with other countries on 25 September 2015. Pakistan was among those nations who have actively pursued the agenda at different levels. Parliament adopted SDGs as national development agenda, parliamentary task forces were established to oversee the SDGs implementation, new institutions were setup to mainstream SDGs into policymaking.

Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform is a lead ministry on SDGs. The ministry is holding a high-level consultative forum on strengthening the population statistics for evidence-based planning and policy review. This forum is in response to Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent policy statement in which he labelled population as the denominator of poverty alleviation and calls for ensuring universal access to family planning for sustainable population growth. He further called for a “National Strategy for the Development of Statistics” for strengthening the quality and availability of statistics so that the government can not only have access to accurate, reliable, and timely statistics but also have a solid and credible base of evidence, which is critical to support the design and evaluation of policies.

SDG comprises of 17 Goals. Each goal is distinctly linked with population. Few targets/indicators are directly linked to the population such as reproductive health, maternal mortality rate, Child mortality and Universal primary and secondary education. Nevertheless, it is universally accepted that population is cross cutting in all SDGs. With the current fertility rate and population growth rate it is difficult to reduce future influx till 2030. Dr Zeba Sathar, the Country Director of Pakistan Population Council, in a seminar at Agha Khan University highlighted the negative impact of higher population growth on all SDG indicators particularly those tied to poverty reduction, nutrition, and health and education services in rural areas.

Goal 1: Population dynamics have an enormous impact on poverty reduction and sustainable development. Poverty is influenced by – and influences – population dynamics; it affects development prospects and prospects for raising living standards for the poor. In addition, linking it with rapid urbanization due to ill-planning of cities quality of life, particularly that of the poor, is negatively affected. Higher population growth creates problems for the government to redistribute resources, hence burden on the social protection.

Goal 2: Malthusian theory elucidates that food insecurity arises with increase in population. However, the theory does not hold in the presence of technological development, globalization etc. Besides population, the impacts of climate change on temperature, precipitation, and agricultural productivity are more significant to diminish food security in some places. It is noteworthy that chronic poor nutrition has permanent effects; it can be extended into the next generation. Nutritionally weak pregnant women pass the ill-effects of hunger onto their future children. Thus, resource constraints and lack of proper nutrition due to lack of awareness, lack of financial resources and absence of strong institutions and social capital is creating problems for the service providers. These issues need to be fixed sooner if we can reduce the population momentum and the fertility rate reaches the replacement rate.

Goal 3: Health and well-being is directly linked with the population dynamics through reproductive health, essential health coverage and financing, child mortality rate and maternal mortality rate. Dr Zeba Sathar, the Country Director of Pakistan Population Council, said that Pakistan loses 12,000 mothers in pregnancy - related causes annually while millions of couples’ cope with unwanted births each year in the country. Decrease in mortality rates and better health coverage is essential to contain population growth rate. The healthy population directly links with eradication of poverty through Goal 4, Goal 8 and Goal 9 in which we have targets of quality education, training, enhancing skills and innovation. Nonetheless, more resources are required with higher population growth to provide better health services which is difficult by following the austerity drive we are currently following.

Goal 4: Population and education nexus has many dimensions. Higher rate of population growth highlights lower quality education in the vicinity. It also implies that lower access to education especially for the females. Different dimensions of this phenomenon are; earlier marriages of females that reduces the chances to get education, lower returns to education compared to domestic chores etc. more importantly, Bangladesh model teaches us to educate women if we want to decrease fertility rate and eventually population growth rate.

Goal 5: Pakistan’s population comprises 49.2 percent females.  More than half are not economically active. However, if the women are given opportunities, childbearing can be delayed using the women as mobilizers in investment and saving. More women contributing simultaneously with the male population will bring about improvements in the national economy.

Goal 6: Demand for water grows with increase in population. It is a necessity for agriculture, industry and household chores. Water per capita has been continuously declining therefore we need to manage use of water properly. The management of water has gained importance due to climate vulnerabilities. Moreover, better sanitation inevitable with increase in population, or otherwise, there will be increase in health problems.

Goal 7: Demand for energy increases with increase in population. More importantly, increase in demand with depleting resources, there is a challenge not only to match the increase in demand but it must be affordable and clean energy for everyone. Therefore, it is important to reduce the rate of growth of population to meat the demand for energy sustainably.

Goal 8: Nevertheless, declining fertility as well as reducing population growth eventually reduces ratio of children to the working‐age population. Consequently, number of dependents reduces and increasing the share of the potential labour force. Large youth population with few dependents would reap the benefits of a demographic dividend. Therefore, we need to invest in youth (age between 15-29) which is 29 percent of population on education and health to get the maximum demographic dividend. Employment opportunities with higher growth is the only possibility to reduce the burden on social protection with current higher population growth.

Goal 9: Industry and industrial infrastructure to accommodate influx of population. Linking it with education, innovation is necessary to boost up for better industry and industrial infrastructure. However, it is not possible in the presence of higher population growth. Higher population growth puts pressure on the earners through number of dependents thus lesser possibility of innovation. In addition to that higher population growth implies higher public investment on infrastructure thus higher debt.

Goal 10: Continuous and consistent unplanned higher population growth decreases the work-force and dependents ratio. This implies increase in expected work force every year in numbers makes labor less attractive hence lower wages. Consequently, rising inequalities. Similarly, rising population growth can affect overall resource distribution that includes land distribution, financial inclusion and designing the overall long-term planning structure. Thus, bottom line is planned and sustainable population growth so that influx every year can be managed easily.

Goal 11: Huge influx to urban centers along with higher population creates problems for urban planners. These issues then lead to increase in illegal settlements such as slums. Many cities in the world currently experiencing higher urban population growth lack the infrastructure needed to support more people. It will become increasingly important that cities are able to offer jobs, education, and basic needs like housing, electricity, and public transportation. Thus, population planning is a way to go for sustainable cities and communities.

Goal 12: Proper management of consumption as well as production needs up-to-date information on number of people. Since population is a denominator for poverty, inequality and other development-oriented indicators. Therefore, until we do not plan for justified population growth it is highly unlikely that we can reduce food loss and material footprint.

Goal 13: Increase in urbanization is among the key factors contributing in environmental degradation due to irresponsible urban settlements, deforestation and cultivation of marginal lands, unsustainable patterns of consumption by more affluent groups. In addition, lack of urban planning to accommodate migrants from other parts of the country.

Goal 14: Everything goes back to management of resources in an efficient way. Higher population growth leads to lower management of resources. Higher demand for fish leads to overfishing, hence it is difficult to maintain fish stocks within biologically sustainable levels and overall food security of the people living there.

Goal 15: Higher population growth leads to increase in deforestation for to cover the need for housing and fuel. Deforestation does not just deplete the natural resource, it also threatens natural habitats, water stress, climate change and biodiversity. The classic example of a change in biodiversity due to increase in population is a case of Yellow Stone National Park in Wyoming, USA where people killed wolves and park lost vegetation. The wolves were reintroduced to increase beaver populations and bring back aspen, and vegetation.

Goal 16: Higher population growth may impact peace negatively. It is a source of human conflict over resources. nevertheless, in the presence of strong institutions the negative effect is lessened. Rapid increase in population increases the size of urban sector.  Thus, urbanization may be good for the economy, but it encourages crime as the rate of crime is higher in large cities and in urbanized areas. Thus, higher population growth creates problems for peace and justice, however, stronger institutions may eradicate these issues.

Difficulty in managing huge influx of population will continue to scare us until stronger institutions are setup. The need of growing population can only be managed under stronger institutions. It is necessary to ensure the sustainable use of natural resources, sustainable consumption and production patterns, reducing land degradation, reducing the overall water stress level, and protection of natural habitat. To achieve sustainable development, we need to manage youth bulge through education and training to get maximum demographic dividend, reduce fertility that eventually reduce ratio of dependents and increase the effectiveness of institutions.