Poverty reduction; using numbers

Just a small exercise 

Poverty – Overall Trend

·       Annual average decline in poverty surged to 9 percent compared to previous decade decline by 5-6 percent.

·       Overall Poverty declined by 2.86 percent every year since 2001-02

-   Based on this figure, by 2023, poverty will be reduced to 4.3 percent.

·       Compound growth rate of decline in Poverty is 6.72 percent

-   Based on this figure, by 2023, poverty will be reduced to 14.94 percent

Years	Poverty	Overall Decline (%)	Annual % change in poverty
2001-02	64.3
2005-06	50.4	-21.62	-5.40
2007-08	44.1	-12.50	-6.25
2010-11	36.8	-16.55	-5.52
2011-12	36.3	-1.36	-1.36
2013-14	29.5	-18.73	-9.37
2015-16	24.3	-17.63	-8.81

Table 2: Poverty Level by 2023.

2001-02 (%)	64.3
2015-16 (%)	24.3
Reduction overall (%)	40
Average Annual Decline (%)	2.857
Poverty level at 2023 (%)	4.3
Average Compound Growth (%)	-6.72
Poverty level at 2023 (%)	14.9

REMARKS: Reaching at 4.3 percent may not be feasible because this data analysis do not take care of real or actual/expected increase in social protection as well as it does not take care of growth rate in GDP. However, if poverty level reaches around 16 percent in the using the PSLM 2018-19 then we can say that poverty decline is following the same trend.