Integrating Population with SDGs
Pakistan has experienced a rapid population growth since 1998
and has the highest fertility rate, though declining in the region. The trend
is similar across all provinces, and in rural and urban areas. Pakistan
Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 2017-18 confirms that there has been
little change in fertility levels since 2005 with women bearing an average of
3.6 children over their reproductive life span.
Impact of population growth on economic development is ambiguous. It can affect
development positively or larger population puts pressures on the existing resources. During the
1980s, on average, population
growth dampened the growth of per capita GDP. The negative effects of rapid
increase in population weighed more on the poorest group especially in the developing
countries. The poorest group has limited resources hence the most vulnerable
and increase in population affects this group. In this article we will explore
the ideas that how population planning leads to sustainable outcomes following
SDGs.
Pakistan signed the SDGs along with other countries on 25
September 2015. Pakistan was among those nations who have actively pursued the
agenda at different levels. Parliament adopted SDGs as national development
agenda, parliamentary task forces were established to oversee the SDGs
implementation, new institutions were setup to mainstream SDGs into
policymaking.
Ministry of Planning, Development and
Reform is a lead ministry on SDGs. The ministry is holding a high-level
consultative forum on strengthening the population statistics for evidence-based
planning and policy review. This forum is in response to Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent policy
statement in which he labelled population as the denominator of poverty
alleviation and calls for ensuring universal access to family planning for
sustainable population growth. He further called for a “National Strategy for
the Development of Statistics” for strengthening the quality and availability
of statistics so that the government can not only have access to accurate,
reliable, and timely statistics but also have a solid and credible base of
evidence, which is critical to support the design and evaluation of policies.
SDG comprises of 17 Goals. Each goal is distinctly linked
with population. Few targets/indicators are directly linked to the population
such as reproductive health, maternal mortality rate, Child mortality and Universal
primary and secondary education. Nevertheless, it is universally accepted that
population is cross cutting in all SDGs. With the current
fertility rate and population growth rate it is difficult to reduce future
influx till 2030. Dr Zeba Sathar, the Country
Director of Pakistan Population Council, in a seminar at Agha Khan
University highlighted the negative impact of
higher population growth on all SDG indicators
particularly those tied to poverty reduction, nutrition, and health and
education services in rural areas.
Goal 1: Population dynamics have an enormous impact on
poverty reduction and sustainable development. Poverty is influenced by – and
influences – population dynamics; it affects development prospects and
prospects for raising living standards for the poor. In addition, linking it
with rapid urbanization due to ill-planning of cities quality of life, particularly
that of the poor, is negatively affected. Higher population growth
creates problems for the government to redistribute resources, hence burden on
the social protection.
Goal 2: Malthusian theory elucidates that food insecurity
arises with increase in population. However, the theory does not hold in the
presence of technological development, globalization etc. Besides population,
the impacts of climate change on temperature, precipitation, and agricultural
productivity are more significant to diminish food security in some places. It
is noteworthy that chronic poor nutrition has permanent effects; it can be
extended into the next generation. Nutritionally weak pregnant women pass the
ill-effects of hunger onto their future children. Thus, resource constraints
and lack of proper nutrition due to lack of awareness, lack of financial
resources and absence of strong institutions and social capital is creating
problems for the service providers. These issues need to be fixed sooner if we
can reduce the population momentum and the fertility rate reaches the
replacement rate.
Goal 3: Health and
well-being is directly linked with the population dynamics through reproductive
health, essential health coverage and financing, child mortality rate and
maternal mortality rate. Dr Zeba Sathar, the
Country Director of Pakistan Population Council, said that Pakistan loses
12,000 mothers in pregnancy - related causes annually while millions of couples’
cope with unwanted births each year in the country. Decrease in
mortality rates and better health coverage is essential to contain population
growth rate. The healthy population directly links with eradication of poverty
through Goal 4, Goal 8 and Goal 9 in which we have targets of quality
education, training, enhancing skills and innovation. Nonetheless, more
resources are required with higher population growth to provide better health
services which is difficult by following the austerity drive we are currently
following.
Goal 4: Population and education nexus has many dimensions.
Higher rate of population growth highlights lower quality education in the
vicinity. It also implies that lower access to education especially for the
females. Different dimensions of this phenomenon are; earlier marriages of
females that reduces the chances to get education, lower returns to education
compared to domestic chores etc. more importantly, Bangladesh model teaches us
to educate women if we want to decrease fertility rate and eventually population
growth rate.
Goal 5: Pakistan’s population comprises 49.2 percent
females. More than half are not
economically active. However, if the women are given opportunities,
childbearing can be delayed using the women as mobilizers in investment and
saving. More women contributing simultaneously with the male population will
bring about improvements in the national economy.
Goal 6: Demand for water grows with increase in population. It
is a necessity for agriculture, industry and household chores. Water per capita
has been continuously declining therefore we need to manage use of water
properly. The management of water has gained importance due to climate vulnerabilities.
Moreover, better sanitation inevitable with increase in population, or
otherwise, there will be increase in health problems.
Goal 7: Demand for energy increases with increase in
population. More importantly, increase in demand with depleting resources,
there is a challenge not only to match the increase in demand but it must be affordable
and clean energy for everyone. Therefore, it is important to reduce the rate of
growth of population to meat the demand for energy sustainably.
Goal 8: Nevertheless, declining fertility as well as
reducing population growth eventually reduces ratio of children to the
working‐age population. Consequently, number of dependents reduces and
increasing the share of the potential labour force. Large youth population with
few dependents would reap the benefits of a demographic dividend.
Therefore, we need to invest in youth
(age between 15-29) which is 29 percent of population on education and health to
get the maximum demographic dividend. Employment opportunities with higher growth
is the only possibility to reduce the burden on social protection with current
higher population growth.
Goal 9: Industry and
industrial infrastructure to accommodate influx of population. Linking it with education,
innovation is necessary to boost up for better industry and industrial
infrastructure. However, it is not possible in the presence of higher
population growth. Higher population growth puts pressure on the earners through
number of dependents thus lesser possibility of innovation. In addition to that
higher population growth implies higher public investment on infrastructure
thus higher debt.
Goal 10: Continuous and
consistent unplanned higher population growth decreases the work-force and
dependents ratio. This implies increase in expected work force every year in numbers
makes labor less attractive hence lower wages. Consequently, rising
inequalities. Similarly, rising population growth can affect overall resource distribution
that includes land distribution, financial inclusion and designing the overall long-term
planning structure. Thus, bottom line is planned and sustainable population growth
so that influx every year can be managed easily.
Goal 11: Huge influx to urban centers along with
higher population creates problems for urban planners. These issues then lead
to increase in illegal settlements such as slums. Many cities in the world
currently experiencing higher urban population growth lack the infrastructure needed to support more people. It
will become increasingly important that cities are able to offer jobs,
education, and basic needs like housing, electricity, and public
transportation. Thus, population planning is a way to go for sustainable cities
and communities.
Goal 12: Proper management of consumption as well as
production needs up-to-date information on number of people. Since population
is a denominator for poverty, inequality and other development-oriented indicators.
Therefore, until we do not plan for justified population growth it is highly
unlikely that we can reduce food loss and material footprint.
Goal
13: Increase in urbanization is among the key factors contributing in
environmental degradation due to irresponsible urban settlements, deforestation
and cultivation of marginal lands, unsustainable patterns of consumption by
more affluent groups. In addition, lack of urban planning to accommodate
migrants from other parts of the country.
Goal 14: Everything goes back to management of resources
in an efficient way. Higher population growth leads to lower management of resources.
Higher demand for fish leads to overfishing, hence it is difficult to maintain fish
stocks within biologically sustainable levels and overall food security of the
people living there.
Goal 15: Higher population growth leads to increase in
deforestation for to cover the need for housing and fuel. Deforestation does
not just deplete the natural resource, it also threatens natural habitats,
water stress, climate change and biodiversity. The classic example of a change
in biodiversity due to increase in population is a case of Yellow
Stone National Park in Wyoming, USA where people killed wolves and park
lost vegetation. The wolves were reintroduced to increase beaver populations
and bring back aspen, and vegetation.
Goal 16: Higher population growth may impact peace negatively.
It is a source of human conflict over resources. nevertheless, in the
presence of strong institutions the negative effect is lessened. Rapid increase
in population increases the size of urban sector. Thus, urbanization
may be good for the economy, but it encourages crime as the rate of crime
is higher in large cities and in urbanized areas. Thus, higher
population growth creates problems for peace and justice, however, stronger institutions
may eradicate these issues.
Difficulty in managing huge influx of
population will continue to scare us until stronger institutions are setup. The
need of growing population can only be managed under stronger institutions. It
is necessary to ensure the sustainable use of natural resources, sustainable
consumption and production patterns, reducing land degradation, reducing the overall
water stress level, and protection of natural habitat. To achieve sustainable development,
we need to manage youth bulge through education and training to get maximum
demographic dividend, reduce fertility that eventually reduce ratio of
dependents and increase the effectiveness of institutions.
