People
of Great Britain voted out the pro EU sentiments in a referendum by 52 percent
to 48 percent on June 23, 2016 which was called by the PM David Cameron who
wanted Britain to remain in EU. As a result he announced his resignation. The
voting was done to decide on Britain Exit from EU, therefore it is in general
known as Brexit.
The
European Union is a political economic union of 28, now 27, countries. Initially
Germany, France, Belgium, Italy and Netherlands formed the first federation of
Europe after the World War II in 1952. Later on England, Ireland and Denmark
joined the group in 1973. The last country which joined EU was Croatia in 2013.
The
EU is a single market system which was developed through standardized rules of
free goods, labor and capital mobility through Schengen Visa. They have common
trade policies and several coherent policies of agriculture, fisheries, and
justice and home affairs. It is governed through the 7 different institutions.
EU
member countries have GDP worth of €16.63 Trillion and their intra EU trade is
€2.8 trillion. Due to joint trade agreements trade share among EU countries is
higher. UK is one of those countries whose exports to EU member states did not
change much in the last one decade but imports have increased by €40 billion.
Economists,
financial experts and bookies were predicting different impacts of Brexit on
Britain, EU and other countries which are economically and financially integrated
with Britain and EU. During the first day of BREXIT polls, stock markets of all
the countries had witnessed decline. UK stock market declined initially by 8
percent, though recovered later on but overall it declined by 3.15 percent in
the entire day. Similarly Nikkei index down by 7.9 percent, while Hang Seng by
2.9 percent, Euro index by 8.6 percent while Dow index by 3 percent. Pakistan
stock exchange reacted to Brexit very strongly today at one point of time it
declined by 3.7 percent but later on recovered 1.5 percent to net loss by 2.2
percent.
Second
panic attack hit UK’s currency which depreciated by 9 percent in one day. In
short to medium run, depreciation may lead to improvement in trade balance
until prices of exports do not increase. Apart from depreciation since UK’s
market inside the EU was quite integrated with EU member countries thus there
is a fear that UK may face repercussions of moving out of EU. Though it is fair
to assume that companies which are currently trading their products with Britain
will not stop their trading abruptly unless there are some bureaucratic hurdles
are attached to Brexit.
Considering
the level of integration these day, though not to the extent of EU, every
country will be hit by Brexit, Pakistan may not be exception to it. However,
lack of open policies as well as constraints to investment in Pakistan the
effect on Pakistan may not be very substantial, nonetheless, few target areas
need to be studied. On the other hand other open economies are expecting more
business with Britain after Brexit.
Pakistan receives 13 percent of remittances
from UK. Brexit may effect in two ways (i) Due to depreciation in exchange rate
people may need to send more in Pound Sterling, therefore there are good
chances that remittances may increase. Contrarily, recipient households may
need to cut down their expenditures which will directly affect our GDP growth
and (ii) In case of job loss due to Brexit, even in the short run, the flow of
remittances will be reduced to Pakistan. Therefore we may face little higher
current account balance than otherwise.
In addition to that, Pakistani
exports to EU are 29 percent out of which 7 percent goes to Britain. Due to
massive depreciation of British currency, which may take 6 months to go back to
its old value, and possible decline in overall income of the British people (British
GDP) Pakistani exports are less likely to increase unless Pakistan exchange
rate is also depreciated which is currently overvalued. If in case, Euro
depreciates as well then Pakistan may face decline in their exports to EU,
which would be more alarming. Nonetheless, Pakistan will keep on enjoying GSP
plus status to EU.
Having said that, there are good
chances that due to depreciation Germany, France and other EU member countries
may not to be able to exports their products to Britain. Thus Pakistan has good
chances to exploit this opportunity and increase its exports to Britain. Nonetheless,
it depends on the products UK imports from EU as well as the negotiations
between the two governments on the tariffs.
Although the amount is not very
significant, nevertheless, share of FDI from UK is around 6 percent in total
FDI we receive every year. Decline in the economic activity may reduce FDI from
UK to Pakistan.
Britain is also involved in giving
aid and grants to Pakistan, which could be lessened due to overall Britain’s
fragile economic situation at least for a year. However, 18 billion pounds Britain
is saving from Brexit, a chunk of it could be spent on aid and grants.
Moreover, students who go for higher
studies to UK may not get temporary jobs due to lower economic activity as well
as UK/EU scholarship may be reduced for the students due to economic turmoil. Few
other question which need answers are; how will it affect Pakistani businessmen
living in UK who were involved in trading with EU? What will happen to the
Pakistan immigrants to Britain who were on Schengen Visa? Are we expecting more
exits from EU? Will there be any split in Great Britain?
The aforementioned are some of the
issues which Pakistani government needs to address by either negotiating with British
high commission and/or British Government to avoid possible hitches.